US ‘new chapter’ for Africa: A Robust Response To A China/Russia Incursion?

The Biden administration has been disappointed that South Africa and its neighbors have not joined the U.S.-led effort to isolate Russia over its invasion of Ukraine nearly six months ago. Blinken’s trip to South Africa last week and visits later in the week to the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda take place in the shadow of his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, who has also been crisscrossing the continent, reportedly with arms deals on offer.

If Blinken had hoped to persuade the South African government to get on board with punishing Russia, he was mistaken. He received a receptive welcome — to a point.

Blinken’s host, South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor, said countries should not have to choose sides between the West on one hand and Russia and China on the other.

“I hate being told, ‘Either you choose this, or else,’ ” she said at a news conference with Blinken. “We cannot be a party to a conflict between China and the U.S.”

As for Russia, Pandor said, South Africa’s position is to urge the United Nations to resolve the conflict with Ukraine through diplomacy, not sanctions.

Pandor was not finished.

Asked about inconsistencies in U.S. foreign policy, she likened Ukrainians to Palestinians, who, she said, also deserve a homeland. She said South Africans have authority to speak about the matter, “having experienced apartheid ourselves,” referring to the white-minority rule that oppressed black South Africans for decades.

Some human rights advocates have likened the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip to apartheid. Israel firmly rejects the characterization, as does the U.S. government.

Blinken has kept a full-court press in Africa. He said he was accompanied by 50 U.S. officials; in recent weeks, senior officials from the State Department, the U.S.

Agency for International Development, the U.S. Mission to the U.N. and others have paid visits to African countries.

Blinken launched the U.S. Strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa in a series of documents, followed by a speech at the University of Pretoria. The main issues addressed by the strategy are human rights and democracy, the fight against terrorism and armed conflict, pandemic recovery and action against hunger and climate change.

Blinken warned that 193 million people face famine worldwide, primarily in Africa, according to the World Bank. Russia’s blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports has led to scarcities in grain, cooking oil and fertilizer.

“The U.S. is there for African countries in this unprecedented crisis, because that’s what partners do for each other,” he said. “The United States will not dictate Africa’s choices, and neither should anyone else. The right to make these choices belongs to Africans, and Africans alone.”

Still, the growing clout of China and Russia on the continent has been a motivating factor behind the U.S. strategy.

Seven coups and attempted coups in the last two years have felled or threatened African governments, and some foreign policy experts blame China. Blinken also cited the Kremlin-backed Wagner Group, a network of mercenaries that has shown up in countries that include Mali, where, he said, it “exploits instability to pillage resources” and commits widespread atrocities, according to human rights organizations.

Joseph Sany, a peace and governance expert originally from Cameroon, said he welcomed a new tone in the Biden administration’s approach toward Africa but said the U.S. has lost a lot of ground. For example, he said, numerous U.S. embassies in the continent are not fully staffed; meanwhile, China remains a powerful adversary.

“China is beating us,” said Sany, vice president of the Africa Center at the U.S. Institute of Peace. “Their diplomats are on the ground, engaged all the time. You cannot Zoom your way into these relationships.”

Russia has less influence but is deadly, he said.

“What Russia has is the ability to disrupt in unstable countries,” Sany said. “It’s vulture diplomacy. When a country is bleeding, [Russia] comes along with paramilitary groups. They are disruptive actors. But keep an eye on China. The strategic competition is with China.”